Probability of Default

Risk

Quick Definition

Probability of Default (PD) is the likelihood that a borrower will fail to repay a loan within a specified time period.

Detailed Explanation

Probability of Default is a key concept in credit risk management used by banks and financial institutions to assess the risk of lending.

It estimates the chance that a borrower will default on obligations, helping lenders decide whether to approve loans and at what interest rates.

In India, risk frameworks are influenced by guidelines from the Reserve Bank of India and global standards like Basel norms.

Key Components in Credit Risk

  • PD (Probability of Default): Chance of default
  • LGD (Loss Given Default): Loss if default occurs
  • EAD (Exposure at Default): Total exposure at default

Why PD Matters

  • Helps lenders assess borrower risk
  • Used in loan pricing and approval
  • Important for banking stability

Factors Affecting PD

  • Credit score/history
  • Income stability
  • Debt levels
  • Economic conditions

Example

"If a borrower has a PD of 5%, there is a 5% chance they may default on the loan within the defined period."

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